Mesa is a very large suburban community with a diverse population and economic base. Until recently, Mesa was one of the largest cities in America without a property tax as part of the municipal tax base. As long as the economy is growing well, there is no tremendous need to forecast accurately. However, when the City of Mesa began experiencing double digit declines in sales tax revenues the need for ascertaining the extent of the decline was, and still is, critical for the sustainability of programs and services provided by the city to the public. The use of a innovative forecast process has proved to be a tremendous asset for decision makers in order to maximize the sustainable level of services that can be provided through the recession.

This document was submitted to the Alliance for Innovation for consideration for a 2010 Innovation Award.