In the August Ambassador Update, Regan Gerlt ideated about the use of scenario writers to explore the future.  Colvin delves into scenario planning in Chapter Six of Talent is Overrated.

Colvin states that deliberate practice enables great performers to perceive more, to know more, and to remember more than most people.  More specifically he addresses how high performers are able to look further ahead than average performers.   

Colvin doesn’t suggest hiring a fortune teller but suggest raising one’s gaze to explore the possibilities that lie ahead.  Shell has been using scenario planning for nearly 40 years to explore possible developments in the future and to test their strategies against those potential developments.  

Shell Maps Energy Scenarios Through 2050

Shell is faced with three hard truths: step-change energy use, supply will struggle to keep pace, and increasing environmental stresses.  Faced with inevitable turbulent times for the energy system, in 2008 Shell mapped two alternative scenarios, Scramble and Blueprints, for the development of the energy system over the next fifty years.   

Scramble:  Policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight and greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks.

Blueprints: Local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution.  A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions.

“The more clearly we can see the complex dynamics of tomorrow’s world, the better we might navigate through the inevitable turbulence,” Jeremy Bentham, Shell International.

If Shell can map scenarios for the turbulent global energy system, is it feasible for local governments to use scenario planning?  How can we incorporate this concept into our organizations and personal career successes?  Share with your Regional Director your thoughts, experiences or blog with other Ambassador’s.  

Are you interested in learning more about Shell Scenario Building process?  Check out their guidebook:
www-static.shell.com/static/public/downloads/brochures/corporate_pkg/scenarios/explorers_guide.pdf