Last year I viewed an interesting “60 Minutes” story on the declining birthrate in Japan. The birthrate has been declining there for decades and, as a result, there are very real concerns about the future of the country. You could say it is an existential concern. 

It turns out that having at least a stable population, if not a growing one, is critically important to whether a society will thrive long term. For example, a stable population is extremely important in promoting a robust economy, financing governmental social and health programs, and maintaining an adequate military. 

Japan is hardly alone though. South Korea has an even lower birthrate than Japan. Nations across the world, including in the West, are witnessing the decline of their birthrates. Strangely, this decline has been going on for many years, but we just didn’t see it or didn’t want to see it. Few countries have done much about it until the past decade or so, and while the predicted negative impacts are most often many years in the future, stable populations, like growing a large oak tree, don’t happen overnight. Demography does not change on a dime. 

Ironically, a generation or two ago, the experts were claiming that the world was experiencing over-population and argued this would result in starvation, war, and environmental catastrophe. This led to some nations adopting strategies and policies to reduce the birthrate, the most famous of which was China’s one-child policy. Today, while the policy seemed to work on reducing the birthrate, it may have actually worked too well. Or in other words, we now realize that this policy did not quite work the way they had thought and that it resulted in a host of unanticipated consequences. 

Several nations, recognizing the potential negative impacts of depopulation, have implemented policies in an effort to increase their birthrates. According to the “60 Minutes” program, some nations like Japan have provided financial incentives to encourage women to bear more children and one, Hungary, even offers to make a woman who bears a certain number of children entirely exempt from income taxes. These efforts do not appear to be working. It seems increasingly more certain that financial incentives are not a primary driver to greater fertility. 

Why the birthrates are decreasing is likely the result of a variety of social, economic, religious, and cultural changes that have occurred over many decades. Regardless of why, it is clear that those of child-bearing years today just don’t seem to be as interested in bearing children as previous generations. In a 2024 Pew Research poll, 57% of men and 45% of women said that they want to have children. If half of U.S. women do not want to have children, this means the other half would need to have more than four children each just to maintain replacement levels. 

Nations, and even local communities, need young people to not only replace those who are aging but also to provide creativity, innovation, and vitality. What if, in light of these growing trends, communities intentionally begin developing strategies to attract families to move into their towns, cities, and counties? This is already happening in Japan and may eventually happen here in the United States. 

In reality, communities don’t exist without people and those communities that don’t maintain stable native population growth or are unable to attract new people and families to move into their communities may very well experience decline. This decline will not only show itself in reduced population numbers but also in the quality of its community. One only needs to visit certain parts of the United States to see once-thriving communities now in a state of depopulation and decline. 

But we do not need to imagine this scenario because in many ways American citizens are already migrating in large numbers to different communities in different states. Large migrations, of course, are not new. For example, early Americans moved west for cheap land and a shot at the American Dream. In the first half of the twentieth century, thousands upon thousands of poor southerners moved to the upper Midwest to work in factories. 

Today, however, it appears that many are moving not only for land or good jobs but for quality of life. Never have Americans been more capable of “just up and moving” than they are today. In short, local communities are already, and have been for some time, competing for people (or more specifically, families) to move to their communities; they just may not have consciously thought about it. But this could be changing. 

If local communities were trying to attract families, what should they do? What strategies or policies would be effective? Would these strategies look much different than they would if they were trying to attract youthful “twenty-somethings” or seniors? What exactly are families looking for in a community? The following is a short list of what most certainly would be high on the list:

Low Crime

Families with children, if they have the choice, will generally not move to communities that are considered to be unsafe. Local governments should renew their focus and efforts on improving public safety in their communities and especially the safety of children.

Quality Schools

Schools have been a hotbed of controversy over the past five to 10 years. In part this may be because they are not producing good results. For example, according to several international surveys (such as those conducted by the Program for International Student Assessments), education in the United States is not doing particularly well, ranking lower than many other industrialized nations. At the same time, the U.S. spends more money per student than most other nations.

Additionally, parental concern about education increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic as parents gained greater insight into school practices and coursework. Many parents were so were so unhappy with what they saw that they transferred their children to private schools or moved their families to communities with higher-rated schools and to school systems that shared their values. The use of school choice vouchers has expanded in some states, though they remain controversial.

Parks and Open Spaces

Attractive, well-kept parks and open spaces near their home are on the top of most people’s lists of desirable amenities in a community, and this is especially true for families. Parents want a safe and convenient place where their children can play. They are willing to pay a premium for such amenities.

Recreation Programs

There has been an explosion of interest in youth recreation programs over the past few decades. Families are looking for well-priced, quality recreation programs, especially athletic programs, in which their children can participate. Interest in “travel team” sports programs has grown, giving participants access to higher-level competition. In order to have robust recreational programs, communities must have adequate recreational facilities and staff or volunteers.

A Mix of Housing Types and Prices

Young families are economically diverse. Some families have considerable financial means while others do not. To attract families, communities should have a variety of housing types and price points. This not only better captures young families but also provides them with future housing options as their careers progress, all within the same community.

Employment Opportunities

Even though many of today’s workers have the ability to work remotely, there seems to be a push to return to the traditional office. While many jobs may remain remote, jobs may again be tied to certain locations. Those communities that have a variety of employment options with competitive compensation and benefits will be very attractive to families.

Affordable Childcare

For many years, this issue has been a major concern for single-parent households and those in which both parents work outside of the home. The cost of childcare for some families is often equal to one parent’s salary or exceeds their housing costs. Managers will need to begin developing policy options to help in financing the cost or finding ways to reduce the cost of childcare.

Just as it always has, the world continues to change, and today, community birthrates are experiencing significant change. Those communities that are able to provide desirable amenities, as well as others that were not mentioned, will be those communities that are best positioned to attract families. Providing these amenities do not happen by accident nor do they happen without careful and intentional planning. 

City/county managers should begin, if they are not already, thinking about how their communities need to adapt to the changing demographics.

MATTHEW CANDLAND, ICMA-CM, is town manager of South Boston, Virginia, USA.