If you are painting a picture of today’s America, you’ll be using a lot less white and pink than you did in 1950. In the coming decades, white Americans who are not of Hispanic origin will be a minority in the United States. This overall change in the country as a whole is reflected more or less in every small and large city from our bread basket middle to the south, east to west. With 82% of the increase in population from 2005 to 2050 expected to be due to immigrants and their children, city managers and elected officials interested in economic growth and development will do well to attend to how welcome people of diverse backgrounds feel in their communities. For the past several years, The National Citizen Survey™ (NCS) has included this question: "Please rate each of the following characteristics as they relate to your jurisdiction as a whole: openness and acceptance of the community toward people of diverse backgrounds."

Across 180 different jurisdictions surveyed in the past few years, the average rating on this community characteristic was at roughly the mid point on a scale that runs from excellent to good to fair to poor. That is about half way between fair and good. But not all jurisdictions are alike and to understand what kinds of communities give higher ratings and which give lower ratings, the National Research Center, Inc. (NRC) conducted a study to determine the characteristics of communities most closely associated with resident ratings of openness and acceptance of diverse populations. We expected that more diverse communities would be the most likely candidates for positive resident ratings on acceptance of diversity. We were wrong. There was virtually no correlation between the percent of white or black or Hispanic residents and resident perspectives about diversity.

Here’s what predicted strong ratings by residents of the community’s openness to people of diverse backgrounds: income, number of renters, the age of the population, and speed of growth of the metro area (the MSA) in which the jurisdiction is located. Wealthier jurisdictions with more renters and more older residents living in faster growing MSAs were more likely to rate highly their acceptance of diverse residents than were folks who lived in poorer communities with more owners and younger residents located in slower growing MSAs. For example, here are two hypothetical communities, one richer with more renters and older residents living in faster growing MSAs compared to an “opposite” community.

*Year 2000 Census

**0=poor; 33=fair; 67=good; 100=excellent (E,G,F,P scale)

In the community with a median income of $35,000, 40% renters, residents on average 30 years old and no growth in the MSA, the predicted rating on the community’s openness and acceptance of people from diverse backgrounds was below the scale midpoint, 48 – closer to “fair” than “good.” For the better off community with more renters and older residents in an MSA that grew by 2% per year, the predicted rating of openness would be above “good,” 70, on 100 point scale.

The characteristics of the self-described open community suggests that people were able to consider themselves to be more accepting when there was less daily concern about paying the bills at the same time that there was growth in the region that brings in more people, including renters. That communities with older residents gave themselves higher ratings on openness may describe places where fewer families (with children) reside to bring down the average age. Whatever the underlying cause of opinions about diversity, it does not appear that the presence of a wide racial mix is linked to those opinions.

If you'd like to share your ideas on these findings, send an e-mail to Noelle@n-r-c.com.

This article was written by Thomas I Miller, president and founder of National Research Center, Inc. and first appeared in Perspectives, Volume 9, No. 4, a newsletter about survey research for local government managers and elected officials. Tom coauthored Citizen Surveys for Local Government: A Comprehensive Guide to Making them Matter, published in 2009 by ICMA.

To learn more about The National Citizen Survey, ™ visit icma.org/ncs.