Blogs / James Ley / The Warfare of Fiscal Policy - An Inevitable Result of Unsustainable Debt?

The Warfare of Fiscal Policy - An Inevitable Result of Unsustainable Debt?

And so the Federal Reserve agreest to buy up $600 billion in use bonds.  Sounds good, we are paying off debt arent't we? 

The answer is NO.  We are in fact playing with monetary policy, firing a salvo in monetary warfare, because we are left with few other alternatives to both stimulate our economy, manage the debt and spread the impact.  So we are "monetizing" our debt, that is printing more money to buy back debt.  

This may produce an advantage at first, because it makes the products produced in our country for export cheaper and it makes imports (you know - everything we buy) more expensive.  This makes the US economy more competitive, and seeks a flow of consumer dollars from other countries.  Can you say "taxation, in a sense, without poltical repercussion?"   But do we even make enough products anymore such that we can increase sales to the global market or for that matter produce lower cost products that satisfy our need for high quality at the lowest cost?  The answer is no, so in effect we are "taxing" our purchases of foreign commodities (paying a higher price)through monetary policy as a means of getting debt under control through revenue production.  A hidden consummer tax, but a tax nonetheless.

But let's look long term.  What happens if the world loses confidence in its reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar, and unloads its dollar reserves onto the market? China has $2 trillion (one seventh of our economy) of our money in its vaults.  This is actual money - not debt.  The resulting dollar crash could plunge the global economy into an abyss puntuatcted by horrendous inflation.

More money means more inflation, and the faster the money becomes devalued, the faster the debts are reduced.  This sounds good unless you own our debt.  If you do, you devalue your currency even further to counteract our fiscal policy.  The monetary warfare escalates.

This is not some boogey man in the closet scare mongering.  This is real, it is happening and there is little we can do about it except to demand responsibility.  It is A HUGE game of chicken being played out on the global monetary scale.  We find ourselves in this circumstance because we desired, as a country and individually, to live beyond our means.  We now understand just how economically connected we are all.  The consequences are very real.

I said it before and I will say it again - I am mad as hell and I am not going ot take it anymore.  It is time for THE gold standard of public admisnitration, ICMA, to stand up and take a position against the political inability to live within means that defines the budgetary management practices of our federal government.

Comments

James Smith

Only part of the answer but - the US is one of the only industrialized countries without a Value Added Tax. If our entitlements,Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, were financed by a VAT restructuring and reduction in the Income Tax could occur.

America's financial problems are still manageable but is the political and social discord?

James Ley
James Ley said

In my opinion a VAT would only give them more to spend and fails ot acknowldge the real cultural issues that are driving this crazy train. Where is Ozzie when you need him?

The lack of controls on the system and the (some would say) invetiable evolution of politics in a republic, seem to me to be mroe the problem. The concern about democracies has always been that when people figure out how to take from each other to gain for themselves, then the system is doomed to fail. Half the people in this country now pay no federal income taxes, they have no skin in the fiscal sustainability and seek to be further rewarded having been successful so far. Everyone should own a piece of the pain and the benefits. So social discord leads to fiscal failure? Our republic as formed was intended to provide a check to the fallability of pure democracy and the excesses of the majority. My fear has been that retail politics has been molded to the consummer culture of our society, thus undermining the leadership hopes of the Founders. Madison articulated high hopes in Federalist 10, but his fears seem to be more the norm.

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